Lean
Take Cleveland Guardians -1.5 at -110
Research scorecard
How strong is the case?
Weak evidence
Historical context
Comparable spots split roughly even (55%, 120 games).
Recent form
Opponent 7-3 in last 10 — peaking.
Market pricing
Edge of +8.3% versus current price.
Supported bymarket pricing
Contradicted byrecent form
Note: 3 dimensions omitted due to missing data.
The case for Cleveland Guardians
Why we like this bet
- ✓Our number on this side carries an estimated +8.3% edge versus the current price.
Reasons to be cautious
The case against this bet
- !Texas Rangers arrive hot — 7-3 in their last 10.
- !Texas Rangers are 7-3 over their last 10.
- !Texas Rangers lead the season series 2-1 (3 meetings).
How similar teams performed›
HISTORICAL EDGE IS NEUTRAL
Across 120 comparable spots in 2025–2026, Cleveland Guardians have run roughly to expectation (55%) — no strong directional signal.
CounterpointOpponent has won 44% of comparable road-side spots across 128 games.
Road side
Texas Rangers
128 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
44%
Avg margin
+0
Avg total
8.8
Average game total
Spots like this average 8.8 combined points.
Filters: road games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-06-28@ Toronto Blue JaysW 3-2
26-06-27@ Toronto Blue JaysW 7-4
26-06-26@ Toronto Blue JaysW 5-4
26-06-25@ Toronto Blue JaysW 6-5
26-06-24@ Miami MarlinsL 2-4
26-06-23@ Miami MarlinsL 4-6
26-06-22@ Miami MarlinsW 4-3
26-06-14@ Boston Red SoxW 6-4
26-06-13@ Boston Red SoxL 3-6
26-06-12@ Boston Red SoxL 1-10
26-06-11@ Kansas City RoyalsW 4-2
26-06-10@ Kansas City RoyalsW 6-4
Home side
Cleveland Guardians
120 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
55%
Avg margin
-0.1
Avg total
7.9
Average game total
Spots like this average 7.9 combined points.
Filters: home games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-06-28vs Seattle MarinersW 6-5
26-06-27vs Seattle MarinersW 4-3
26-06-26vs Seattle MarinersL 1-3
26-06-13vs Detroit TigersW 3-1
26-06-12vs Detroit TigersW 3-2
26-06-10vs New York YankeesL 4-8
26-06-09vs New York YankeesL 2-3
26-06-08vs New York YankeesL 5-7
26-05-31vs Boston Red SoxL 4-9
26-05-30vs Boston Red SoxL 1-9
26-05-29vs Boston Red SoxW 4-3
26-05-27vs Washington NationalsW 3-2
NotesATS and Over/Under rates not shown — historical line data is not in scope yet.
What the season says›
Signals from the data
Opponent on a heatermedium
Texas Rangers are 7-3 over their last 10.
Trails the season seriesmedium
Texas Rangers lead the season series 2-1 (3 meetings).
Head-to-head this season
Rangers
2
Guardians
1
- Last meeting: Texas Rangers 10, Cleveland Guardians 0
- Texas Rangers lead the season series 2-1.
Away
Texas Rangers
Overall42-42
Last 107-3
On the road23-24
After a loss22-20
Scoring (last 10)4.8 for / 4.4 against
Home
Cleveland Guardians
Overall44-40
Last 105-5
At home21-18
After a loss24-16
Scoring (last 10)3.7 for / 3.6 against
Sources: ESPN team schedule · ESPN team standings · Current season only
How the market sees it›
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