Lean
Take Boston Red Sox -1.5 at -110
Research scorecard
How strong is the case?
Moderate evidence
Historical context
Comparable spots split roughly even (52%, 122 games).
Recent form
Boston Red Sox 7-3 in last 10.
Market pricing
Edge of +12.7% versus current price.
Supported byrecent form · market pricing
Note: 3 dimensions omitted due to missing data.
The case for Boston Red Sox
Why we like this bet
- ✓Boston Red Sox are 7-3 over their last 10 — playing their best ball of the stretch.
- ✓Boston Red Sox ride a 4-game win streak into the matchup.
- ✓Boston Red Sox are 7-3 over their last 10.
- ✓Our number on this side carries an estimated +12.7% edge versus the current price.
Reasons to be cautious
The case against this bet
- !Boston Red Sox are only 16-25 at home this season.
How similar teams performed›
HISTORICAL EDGE IS NEUTRAL
Across 122 comparable spots in 2025–2026, Boston Red Sox have run roughly to expectation (52%) — no strong directional signal.
CounterpointOpponent has won 48% of comparable road-side spots across 124 games.
Road side
Washington Nationals
124 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
48%
Avg margin
-0.2
Avg total
9.8
Average game total
Spots like this average 9.8 combined points.
Filters: road games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-06-28@ Baltimore OriolesW 6-4
26-06-27@ Baltimore OriolesW 4-3
26-06-26@ Baltimore OriolesL 1-3
26-06-21@ Tampa Bay RaysL 3-4
26-06-20@ Tampa Bay RaysW 4-3
26-06-19@ Tampa Bay RaysL 2-5
26-06-10@ San Francisco GiantsL 10-11
26-06-10@ San Francisco GiantsW 6-3
26-06-09@ San Francisco GiantsW 4-3
26-06-07@ Arizona DiamondbacksL 1-5
26-06-06@ Arizona DiamondbacksW 6-1
26-06-06@ Arizona DiamondbacksW 14-1
Home side
Boston Red Sox
122 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
52%
Avg margin
+0.4
Avg total
8.5
Average game total
Spots like this average 8.5 combined points.
Filters: home games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-06-28vs New York YankeesW 5-4
26-06-27vs New York YankeesW 4-1
26-06-26vs New York YankeesW 6-1
26-06-25vs New York YankeesW 6-3
26-06-18vs Toronto Blue JaysL 3-4
26-06-17vs Toronto Blue JaysL 0-3
26-06-16vs Toronto Blue JaysL 1-6
26-06-14vs Texas RangersL 4-6
26-06-13vs Texas RangersW 6-3
26-06-12vs Texas RangersW 10-1
26-06-04vs Baltimore OriolesL 2-8
26-06-03vs Baltimore OriolesW 8-1
NotesATS and Over/Under rates not shown — historical line data is not in scope yet.
What the season says›
Signals from the data
Hot recent formmedium
Boston Red Sox are 7-3 over their last 10.
Vulnerable at homemedium
Boston Red Sox are only 16-25 at home this season.
Head-to-head this season
No prior meetings this season.
Away
Washington Nationals
Overall43-42
Last 104-6
On the road26-17
After a loss22-20
Scoring (last 10)4.2 for / 5.2 against
Home
Boston Red Sox
Overall36-46
Last 107-3
At home16-25
After a loss20-26
Scoring (last 10)4.6 for / 2.8 against
Sources: ESPN team schedule · ESPN team standings · Current season only
How the market sees it›
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