Lean
Take Houston Astros -1.5 at -110
Research scorecard
How strong is the case?
Moderate evidence
Historical context
Comparable spots split roughly even (54%, 122 games).
Recent form
Houston Astros 7-3 in last 10.
Market pricing
Edge of +5.2% versus current price.
Supported byrecent form · market pricing
Note: 3 dimensions omitted due to missing data.
The case for Houston Astros
Why we like this bet
- ✓Houston Astros are 7-3 over their last 10 — playing their best ball of the stretch.
- ✓Houston Astros are 7-3 over their last 10.
- ✓Our number on this side carries an estimated +5.2% edge versus the current price.
Reasons to be cautious
The case against this bet
- !Minnesota Twins lead the season series 2-1 (3 meetings).
How similar teams performed›
HISTORICAL EDGE IS NEUTRAL
Across 122 comparable spots in 2025–2026, Houston Astros have run roughly to expectation (54%) — no strong directional signal.
CounterpointOpponent has won 41% of comparable road-side spots across 121 games.
Road side
Minnesota Twins
121 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
41%
Avg margin
-0.5
Avg total
9.2
Average game total
Spots like this average 9.2 combined points.
Filters: road games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-06-21@ Arizona DiamondbacksW 4-2
26-06-21@ Arizona DiamondbacksW 16-8
26-06-20@ Arizona DiamondbacksL 5-9
26-06-18@ Texas RangersW 9-3
26-06-17@ Texas RangersW 12-2
26-06-16@ Texas RangersW 4-2
26-06-11@ Detroit TigersL 0-11
26-06-10@ Detroit TigersW 6-4
26-06-09@ Detroit TigersL 4-10
26-05-31@ Pittsburgh PiratesL 3-9
26-05-30@ Pittsburgh PiratesL 9-10
26-05-29@ Pittsburgh PiratesL 5-6
Home side
Houston Astros
122 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
54%
Avg margin
-0.5
Avg total
8.6
Average game total
Spots like this average 8.6 combined points.
Filters: home games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-06-21vs Cleveland GuardiansW 2-1
26-06-20vs Cleveland GuardiansL 1-8
26-06-20vs Cleveland GuardiansW 9-3
26-06-17vs Detroit TigersW 4-2
26-06-17vs Detroit TigersW 4-2
26-06-16vs Detroit TigersL 3-9
26-06-07vs AthleticsL 0-5
26-06-06vs AthleticsW 13-2
26-06-06vs AthleticsW 5-1
26-06-05vs Pittsburgh PiratesL 1-5
26-06-04vs Pittsburgh PiratesW 11-9
26-06-03vs Pittsburgh PiratesL 6-10
NotesATS and Over/Under rates not shown — historical line data is not in scope yet.
What the season says›
Signals from the data
Hot recent formmedium
Houston Astros are 7-3 over their last 10.
Trails the season seriesmedium
Minnesota Twins lead the season series 2-1 (3 meetings).
Head-to-head this season
Twins
2
Astros
1
- Last meeting: Minnesota Twins 4, Houston Astros 1
- Minnesota Twins lead the season series 2-1.
Away
Minnesota Twins
Overall40-45
Last 105-5
On the road18-22
After a loss21-24
Scoring (last 10)5.8 for / 5.8 against
Home
Houston Astros
Overall42-44
Last 107-3
At home20-21
After a loss24-20
Scoring (last 10)4.3 for / 4.4 against
Sources: ESPN team schedule · ESPN team standings · Current season only
How the market sees it›
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