Best Value
Take Chicago Cubs -1.5 at -110
Research scorecard
How strong is the case?
Strong evidence
Historical context
60% win rate across 121 comparable spots.
Recent form
Chicago Cubs 8-2 in last 10.
Market pricing
Edge of +10.3% versus current price.
Supported byhistorical context · recent form · market pricing
Note: 3 dimensions omitted due to missing data.
The case for Chicago Cubs
Why we like this bet
- ✓Chicago Cubs are 8-2 over their last 10 — playing their best ball of the stretch.
- ✓Chicago Cubs are 8-2 over their last 10.
- ✓Chicago Cubs lead the season series 2-1 (3 meetings).
- ✓Our number on this side carries an estimated +10.3% edge versus the current price.
Reasons to be cautious
The case against this bet
Nothing in the current data set argues meaningfully against this side.
How similar teams performed›
HISTORICAL EDGE IS NEUTRAL
Across 121 comparable spots in 2025–2026, Chicago Cubs have run roughly to expectation (60%) — no strong directional signal.
CounterpointOpponent has won 49% of comparable road-side spots across 119 games.
Road side
San Diego Padres
119 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
49%
Avg margin
0
Avg total
8.5
Average game total
Spots like this average 8.5 combined points.
Filters: road games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-06-21@ Texas RangersL 3-4
26-06-20@ Texas RangersW 6-4
26-06-20@ Texas RangersL 7-9
26-06-17@ St. Louis CardinalsW 6-1
26-06-16@ St. Louis CardinalsL 2-3
26-06-15@ St. Louis CardinalsL 0-3
26-06-14@ Baltimore OriolesW 5-2
26-06-13@ Baltimore OriolesW 9-3
26-06-12@ Baltimore OriolesL 3-7
26-06-04@ Philadelphia PhilliesL 4-6
26-06-03@ Philadelphia PhilliesL 2-3
26-06-02@ Philadelphia PhilliesL 2-3
Home side
Chicago Cubs
121 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
60%
Avg margin
+0.7
Avg total
8.9
Average game total
Spots like this average 8.9 combined points.
Filters: home games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-06-20vs Toronto Blue JaysL 6-8
26-06-19vs Toronto Blue JaysW 16-2
26-06-18vs Colorado RockiesW 8-6
26-06-17vs Colorado RockiesL 2-5
26-06-16vs Colorado RockiesW 5-4
26-06-08vs San Francisco GiantsL 1-2
26-06-06vs San Francisco GiantsW 3-2
26-06-05vs San Francisco GiantsL 3-18
26-06-05vs AthleticsW 7-6
26-06-04vs AthleticsL 4-5
26-06-03vs AthleticsL 1-2
26-05-24vs Houston AstrosL 5-8
NotesATS and Over/Under rates not shown — historical line data is not in scope yet.
What the season says›
Signals from the data
Hot recent formstrong
Chicago Cubs are 8-2 over their last 10.
Owns the season seriesmedium
Chicago Cubs lead the season series 2-1 (3 meetings).
Head-to-head this season
Padres
1
Cubs
2
- Last meeting: Chicago Cubs 5, San Diego Padres 4
- Chicago Cubs lead the season series 2-1.
Away
San Diego Padres
Overall43-39
Last 106-4
On the road20-18
After a loss21-17
Scoring (last 10)4.7 for / 4.6 against
Home
Chicago Cubs
Overall46-38
Last 108-2
At home23-17
After a loss18-20
Scoring (last 10)7.7 for / 4.4 against
Sources: ESPN team schedule · ESPN team standings · Current season only
How the market sees it›
Loading intel…