Lean
Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 at -110
Research scorecard
How strong is the case?
Moderate evidence
Historical context
63% win rate across 124 comparable spots.
Recent form
Milwaukee Brewers 5-5 — neither hot nor cold.
Market pricing
Edge of +9.2% versus current price.
Supported byhistorical context · market pricing
Note: 3 dimensions omitted due to missing data.
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
Why we like this bet
- ✓Milwaukee Brewers (50-31) own the stronger overall record — Cincinnati Reds sit at 39-43.
- ✓Milwaukee Brewers lead the season series 3-0 (3 meetings).
- ✓Our number on this side carries an estimated +9.2% edge versus the current price.
Reasons to be cautious
The case against this bet
Nothing in the current data set argues meaningfully against this side.
How similar teams performed›
HISTORICAL EDGE IS NEUTRAL
Across 124 comparable spots in 2025–2026, Milwaukee Brewers have run roughly to expectation (63%) — no strong directional signal.
CounterpointOpponent has won 48% of comparable road-side spots across 122 games.
Road side
Cincinnati Reds
122 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
48%
Avg margin
-0.1
Avg total
8.8
Average game total
Spots like this average 8.8 combined points.
Filters: road games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-06-28@ Pittsburgh PiratesL 4-9
26-06-27@ Pittsburgh PiratesW 9-7
26-06-26@ Pittsburgh PiratesW 6-4
26-06-21@ New York YankeesW 4-1
26-06-20@ New York YankeesW 10-2
26-06-19@ New York YankeesL 0-5
26-06-10@ San Diego PadresL 4-5
26-06-10@ San Diego PadresW 5-3
26-06-09@ San Diego PadresL 2-6
26-06-07@ St. Louis CardinalsL 3-5
26-06-06@ St. Louis CardinalsL 5-6
26-06-06@ St. Louis CardinalsL 3-10
Home side
Milwaukee Brewers
124 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
63%
Avg margin
+1.2
Avg total
8.6
Average game total
Spots like this average 8.6 combined points.
Filters: home games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-06-28vs Chicago CubsL 3-4
26-06-27vs Chicago CubsL 2-8
26-06-26vs Chicago CubsW 6-2
26-06-18vs Cleveland GuardiansL 2-4
26-06-17vs Cleveland GuardiansW 9-4
26-06-16vs Cleveland GuardiansW 2-1
26-06-14vs Philadelphia PhilliesW 4-0
26-06-13vs Philadelphia PhilliesL 8-9
26-06-12vs Philadelphia PhilliesW 6-0
26-06-04vs San Francisco GiantsL 9-12
26-06-03vs San Francisco GiantsL 0-1
26-06-02vs San Francisco GiantsW 8-3
NotesATS and Over/Under rates not shown — historical line data is not in scope yet.
What the season says›
Signals from the data
Owns the season seriesstrong
Milwaukee Brewers lead the season series 3-0 (3 meetings).
Head-to-head this season
Reds
0
Brewers
3
- Last meeting: Milwaukee Brewers 6, Cincinnati Reds 5
- Milwaukee Brewers lead the season series 3-0.
Away
Cincinnati Reds
Overall39-43
Last 104-6
On the road20-21
After a loss19-23
Scoring (last 10)4 for / 4.7 against
Home
Milwaukee Brewers
Overall50-31
Last 105-5
At home26-17
After a loss15-15
Scoring (last 10)3.7 for / 3.5 against
Sources: ESPN team schedule · ESPN team standings · Current season only
How the market sees it›
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