Best Value
Take Miami Marlins -1.5 at -110
Research scorecard
How strong is the case?
Moderate evidence
Historical context
Comparable spots split roughly even (48%, 120 games).
Recent form
Miami Marlins 8-2 in last 10.
Market pricing
Edge of +6.9% versus current price.
Supported byrecent form · market pricing
Note: 3 dimensions omitted due to missing data.
The case for Miami Marlins
Why we like this bet
- ✓Miami Marlins (44-40) own the stronger overall record — Colorado Rockies sit at 33-51.
- ✓Miami Marlins are 8-2 over their last 10 — playing their best ball of the stretch.
- ✓Miami Marlins are 8-2 over their last 10.
- ✓Miami Marlins lead the season series 3-0 (3 meetings).
- ✓Our number on this side carries an estimated +6.9% edge versus the current price.
Reasons to be cautious
The case against this bet
Nothing in the current data set argues meaningfully against this side.
How similar teams performed›
HISTORICAL EDGE IS NEUTRAL
Across 120 comparable spots in 2025–2026, Miami Marlins have run roughly to expectation (48%) — no strong directional signal.
CounterpointOpponent has won 36% of comparable home-side spots across 121 games.
Road side
Miami Marlins
120 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
48%
Avg margin
-0.5
Avg total
9.7
Average game total
Spots like this average 9.7 combined points.
Filters: road games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-06-28@ St. Louis CardinalsL 1-2
26-06-27@ St. Louis CardinalsW 5-1
26-06-27@ St. Louis CardinalsW 4-0
26-06-17@ Philadelphia PhilliesW 12-4
26-06-16@ Philadelphia PhilliesL 2-8
26-06-15@ Philadelphia PhilliesL 0-7
26-06-14@ Pittsburgh PiratesW 4-2
26-06-13@ Pittsburgh PiratesL 2-3
26-06-12@ Pittsburgh PiratesW 8-3
26-06-03@ Washington NationalsW 4-1
26-06-02@ Washington NationalsW 7-3
26-06-01@ Washington NationalsW 7-3
Home side
Colorado Rockies
121 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
36%
Avg margin
-2.2
Avg total
11.4
Average game total
Spots like this average 11.4 combined points.
Filters: home games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-06-24vs Boston Red SoxW 8-6
26-06-24vs Boston Red SoxL 2-5
26-06-23vs Boston Red SoxW 3-2
26-06-21vs Pittsburgh PiratesL 6-8
26-06-21vs Pittsburgh PiratesW 2-1
26-06-20vs Pittsburgh PiratesW 4-3
26-06-11vs Chicago CubsL 3-9
26-06-11vs Chicago CubsW 3-2
26-06-10vs Chicago CubsW 7-3
26-06-07vs Milwaukee BrewersL 4-12
26-06-07vs Milwaukee BrewersL 1-7
26-06-06vs Milwaukee BrewersL 7-9
NotesATS and Over/Under rates not shown — historical line data is not in scope yet.
What the season says›
Signals from the data
Hot recent formstrong
Miami Marlins are 8-2 over their last 10.
Owns the season seriesstrong
Miami Marlins lead the season series 3-0 (3 meetings).
Head-to-head this season
Marlins
3
Rockies
0
- Last meeting: Miami Marlins 4, Colorado Rockies 3
- Miami Marlins lead the season series 3-0.
Away
Miami Marlins
Overall44-40
Last 108-2
On the road16-23
After a loss19-20
Scoring (last 10)4.7 for / 2.4 against
Home
Colorado Rockies
Overall33-51
Last 105-5
At home18-22
After a loss22-28
Scoring (last 10)4.9 for / 5 against
Sources: ESPN team schedule · ESPN team standings · Current season only
How the market sees it›
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