NHL7:00 PM ET · ESPN+
BlackhawksChicago Blackhawks0-1-0 · L1 · L10 0-1-0, 0 PTS@
7:00 PM
ET · KeyBank Center
SabresBuffalo Sabres · Home0-1-0 · L1 · L10 0-1-0, 0 PTSMLPuck lineTotalCHI+180+1.5-135O 6.5+105BUF-218-1.5+114U 6.5-125
Lines via DraftKings
NO PLAYYGG passes
YGG passes
Blackhawks @ Sabres
YGG's model favours Sabres, and the market mostly agrees. At +120 there isn't enough left to bet.
YGG Model vs Market
YGGMarketDiff
Blackhawks27%——
Sabres73%——
Historical evidence shows the market already prices what this model knows, so the call is priced on the market; the model is shown for context.
Closest priceSabres -1.5 · Puck line
Other booksDraftKings+114BetMGM+110Fanatics+110
Best price seen 1 min ago. Prices move; the thresholds above tell you when it stops being a play.
YGG projectionygg_nhl_model_v1
Blackhawks2.4
—Sabres3.7
Sabres lineYGG -1.4market -1.5
Total goalsYGG 6.1market 6.5
Goalies
BlackhawksSpencer KnightExpected
SabresUkko-Pekka LuukkonenExpected
YGG's read
- The price already reflects it
Caesars's +120 implies 45%; YGG makes it 45%. Not enough left to bet.
What could go wrong
- Thin model inputs
Part of the model's read rests on limited or prior-season data.
Home goalie expected, not confirmed (Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen)Away goalie expected, not confirmed (Spencer Knight)Model weight reduced for unconfirmed inputs (goalie_unconfirmed×0.5)
Model convictionNone
Price qualityNot playable
Data qualityPartial
How this call was made
- Recommendation engine
- tip_engine_v2 · config aa9085aea94f5c2d
- Sport model
- ygg_nhl_model_v1 (beta_public) · not used in the price
- Market estimate
- consensus_devig_v1 · 4 books
- Version
- #9 · updated Oct 1, 8:44 PM ET · updates until the start
- ✓ not started pregame
- ✓ sport enabled sport configured
- ✓ market present 3 instrument(s)
- ✓ min books 4 verified books (need 3)
- ✓ price fresh fresh prices available
- ✓ dispersion market agrees on the number
- ✓ candidates 6 priced side(s)
- ✕ edge bet edge -0.13 pp / EV -0.29% vs 2.50 pp / 2%
- ✕ edge lean edge -0.13 pp vs 1.25 pp
- ✓ starter resolved no unresolved starter
Calls freeze at the start and are graded against the result and the closing price. See the record →
Form
ESPN standingsCHIvsBUF0-1Record0-1
0.0Win %0.0
L1StreakL1
0-1-0, 0 PTSLast 100-1-0, 0 PTS
0-1-0Road0-1-0
0-0-0Home0-0-0
2Scored3
5Allowed6