NHL7:00 PM ET · ESPN+
CanadiensMontreal Canadiens1-0-0 · W1 · L10 1-0-0, 0 PTS@
7:00 PM
ET · PPG Paints Arena
PenguinsPittsburgh Penguins · Home1-0-0 · W1 · L10 1-0-0, 0 PTSMLPuck lineTotalMTL-110-1.5+225O 6.5+114PIT-110+1.5-278U 6.5-135
Lines via DraftKings
NO PLAYYGG passes
YGG passes
Canadiens @ Penguins
YGG's model favours Penguins, and the market mostly agrees. At -108 there isn't enough left to bet.
YGG Model vs MarketPenguins +5.9 pts
YGGMarketDiff
Canadiens44%50%-5.9
Penguins56%50%+5.9
Historical evidence shows the market already prices what this model knows, so the call is priced on the market; the model is shown for context.
Closest priceCanadiens ML · Moneyline
Other booksBetMGM-110DraftKings-110Fanatics-110
Best price seen 1 min ago. Prices move; the thresholds above tell you when it stops being a play.
YGG projectionygg_nhl_model_v1
Canadiens3.1
—Penguins3.2
Penguins lineYGG -0.4no market line
Total goalsYGG 6.3no market total
Goalies
CanadiensJakub DobesExpected
PenguinsArturs SilovsExpected
YGG's read
- The price already reflects it
Caesars's -108 implies 52%; YGG makes it 50%. Not enough left to bet.
What could go wrong
- Shot share-0.2 goals
Possession and shots have tilted toward Penguins.
- Thin model inputs
Part of the model's read rests on limited or prior-season data.
Home goalie expected, not confirmed (Arturs Silovs)Away goalie expected, not confirmed (Jakub Dobes)Model weight reduced for unconfirmed inputs (goalie_unconfirmed×0.5)
Model convictionNone
Price qualityNot playable
Data qualityPartial
How this call was made
- Recommendation engine
- tip_engine_v2 · config aa9085aea94f5c2d
- Sport model
- ygg_nhl_model_v1 (beta_public) · not used in the price
- Market estimate
- consensus_devig_v1 · 4 books
- Version
- #8 · updated Oct 1, 8:44 PM ET · updates until the start
- ✓ not started pregame
- ✓ sport enabled sport configured
- ✓ market present 1 instrument(s)
- ✓ min books 4 verified books (need 3)
- ✓ price fresh fresh prices available
- ✓ dispersion market agrees on the number
- ✓ candidates 2 priced side(s)
- ✕ edge bet edge -1.92 pp / EV -3.70% vs 2.50 pp / 2%
- ✕ edge lean edge -1.92 pp vs 1.25 pp
- ✓ starter resolved no unresolved starter
Calls freeze at the start and are graded against the result and the closing price. See the record →
Form
ESPN standingsMTLvsPIT1-0Record1-0
100.0Win %100.0
W1StreakW1
1-0-0, 0 PTSLast 101-0-0, 0 PTS
1-0-0Road1-0-0
0-0-0Home0-0-0
3Scored7
2Allowed0