NHL7:00 PM ET · ESPN+
CapitalsWashington Capitals0-0-0 · L10 0-0-0, 0 PTS@
7:00 PM
ET · Benchmark International Arena
LightningTampa Bay Lightning · Home0-1-0 · L1 · L10 0-1-0, 0 PTSMLPuck lineTotalWSH+124+1.5-205O 6.5+114TB-148-1.5+170U 6.5-135
Total open → now5.56.5
TB ML open → now-142-148
Lines via DraftKingsNO PLAYYGG passes
YGG passes
Capitals @ Lightning
YGG's model favours Lightning, and the market mostly agrees. At +170 there isn't enough left to bet.
YGG Model vs Market
YGGMarketDiff
Capitals41%——
Lightning59%——
Historical evidence shows the market already prices what this model knows, so the call is priced on the market; the model is shown for context.
Closest priceLightning -1.5 · Puck line
Other booksBetMGM+165Fanatics+165Caesars+160
Best price seen 1 min ago. Prices move; the thresholds above tell you when it stops being a play.
YGG projectionygg_nhl_model_v1
Capitals2.9
—Lightning3.3
Lightning lineYGG -0.4market -1.5
Total goalsYGG 6.2no market total
Goalies
CapitalsCharlie LindgrenExpected
LightningAndrei VasilevskiyExpected
YGG's read
- The price already reflects it
DraftKings's +170 implies 37%; YGG makes it 36%. Not enough left to bet.
What could go wrong
- Adjusted results-0.1 goals
Opponent-adjusted results favour Capitals.
- Thin model inputs
Part of the model's read rests on limited or prior-season data.
Home goalie expected, not confirmed (Andrei Vasilevskiy)Away goalie expected, not confirmed (Charlie Lindgren)Model weight reduced for unconfirmed inputs (goalie_unconfirmed×0.5)
Model convictionNone
Price qualityNot playable
Data qualityPartial
How this call was made
- Recommendation engine
- tip_engine_v2 · config aa9085aea94f5c2d
- Sport model
- ygg_nhl_model_v1 (beta_public) · not used in the price
- Market estimate
- consensus_devig_v1 · 4 books
- Version
- #7 · updated Oct 1, 8:44 PM ET · updates until the start
- ✓ not started pregame
- ✓ sport enabled sport configured
- ✓ market present 2 instrument(s)
- ✓ min books 4 verified books (need 3)
- ✓ price fresh fresh prices available
- ✓ dispersion market agrees on the number
- ✓ candidates 4 priced side(s)
- ✕ edge bet edge -0.89 pp / EV -2.41% vs 2.50 pp / 2%
- ✕ edge lean edge -0.89 pp vs 1.25 pp
- ✓ starter resolved no unresolved starter
Calls freeze at the start and are graded against the result and the closing price. See the record →
Form
ESPN standingsWSHvsTB0-0Record0-1
0.0Win %0.0
-StreakL1
0-0-0, 0 PTSLast 100-1-0, 0 PTS
0-0-0Road0-1-0
0-0-0Home0-0-0
0Scored1
0Allowed5