NHL10:00 PM ET · ESPN+
DucksAnaheim Ducks0-0-0 · L10 0-0-0, 0 PTS@
10:00 PM
ET · T-Mobile Arena
Golden KnightsVegas Golden Knights · Home1-0-0 · W1 · L10 1-0-0, 0 PTSMLPuck lineTotalANA+154+1.5-148O 6.5-122VGK-185-1.5+124U 6.5+102
VGK ML open → now-155-185
Lines via DraftKingsLEANYGG Lean
Golden Knights -1.5
Puck line · Ducks @ Golden Knights
+143Bbetrivers
YGG makes Golden Knights -1.5 43%. BetRivers at +143 only needs 41% to break even.
Model convictionNone
Price qualityFair
Data qualityPartial
YGG Model vs Market
YGGMarketDiff
Ducks39%——
Golden Knights61%——
Historical evidence shows the market already prices what this model knows, so the call is priced on the market; the model is shown for context.
The priceGolden Knights -1.5 · Puck line
YGG fair price+13243.1% chance
Value+4.8%+2.0 pts over break-even
Lean down to+139worst price that still qualifies
Becomes a BET at+147or better
Other booksBetMGM+125DraftKings+124Fanatics+120FanDuel+116
Best price seen 1 min ago. Prices move; the thresholds above tell you when it stops being a play.
YGG projectionygg_nhl_model_v1
Ducks2.7
—Golden Knights3.2
Golden Knights lineYGG -0.6market -1.5
Total goalsYGG 5.9market 6.5
Goalies
DucksLukas DostalExpected
Golden KnightsCarter HartExpected
Why YGG likes it
- The price is worth taking+4.8% value
BetRivers is offering +143; YGG's fair price is +132.
What could go wrong
- Thin model inputs
Part of the model's read rests on limited or prior-season data.
Home goalie expected, not confirmed (Carter Hart)Away goalie expected, not confirmed (Lukas Dostal)Model weight reduced for unconfirmed inputs (goalie_unconfirmed×0.5)
How this call was made
- Recommendation engine
- tip_engine_v2 · config aa9085aea94f5c2d
- Sport model
- ygg_nhl_model_v1 (beta_public) · not used in the price
- Market estimate
- consensus_devig_v1 · 5 books
- Version
- #15 · updated Oct 1, 9:44 PM ET · updates until the start
- ✓ not started pregame
- ✓ sport enabled sport configured
- ✓ market present 3 instrument(s)
- ✓ min books 6 verified books (need 3)
- ✓ price fresh fresh prices available
- ✓ dispersion market agrees on the number
- ✓ candidates 6 priced side(s)
- ✕ edge bet edge 1.96 pp / EV 4.77% vs 2.50 pp / 2%
- ✓ edge lean edge 1.96 pp vs 1.25 pp
- ✓ starter resolved no unresolved starter
Calls freeze at the start and are graded against the result and the closing price. See the record →
Form
ESPN standingsANAvsVGK0-0Record1-0
0.0Win %100.0
-StreakW1
0-0-0, 0 PTSLast 101-0-0, 0 PTS
0-0-0Road0-0-0
0-0-0Home1-0-0
0Scored5
0Allowed2