Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships · Round of 16 · Hard court · Fri 9:25 AM ET (estimated)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi
NO PLAYYGG passes
YGG passes
Alcaraz vs Arnaldi · Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships · Round of 16 · Hard court
YGG's model favours Alcaraz, and the market mostly agrees. At -2500 there isn't enough left to bet.
YGG Model vs MarketAlcaraz -2.7 pts
YGGMarketDiff
Alcaraz91%94%-2.7
Arnaldi9%6%+2.7
Historical evidence shows the market already prices what this model knows, so the call is priced on the market; the model is shown for context.
Closest priceAlcaraz to win · To win
Best price seen 18 min ago. Prices move; the thresholds above tell you when it stops being a play.
Match profileKinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships · Round of 16 · Hard court
AlcarazArnaldi
Rating22901731
Tour matches353189
YGG's read
- The price already reflects it
FanDuel's -2500 implies 96%; YGG makes it 94%. Not enough left to bet.
Start time estimated
Model convictionNone
Price qualityNot playable
Data qualityPartial
How this call was made
- Recommendation engine
- tip_engine_v2 · config aa9085aea94f5c2d
- Sport model
- ygg_atp_model_v1 (beta_public) · not used in the price
- Market estimate
- bdl_consensus_v1 · 2 books
- Version
- #16 · updated Oct 1, 9:44 PM ET · updates until the start
- ✓ not started pregame
- ✓ sport enabled sport configured
- ✓ market present 1 instrument(s)
- ✓ min books 2 verified books (need 2)
- ✓ price fresh fresh prices available
- ✓ dispersion market agrees on the number
- ✓ candidates 1 priced side(s)
- ✕ edge bet edge -2.41 pp / EV -2.51% vs 2.50 pp / 2%
- ✕ edge lean edge -2.41 pp vs 1.25 pp
- ✓ starter resolved no unresolved starter
Calls freeze at the start and are graded against the result and the closing price. See the record →