NFL · Sun 9:30 AM ET
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Scores, lines and injuries open once this game is on the ESPN feed. The YGG call below is current.
NO PLAYYGG passes
YGG passes
Colts @ Commanders
YGG's model favours Commanders, and the market mostly agrees. At -105 there isn't enough left to bet.
YGG Model vs Market
YGGMarketDiff
Colts36%——
Commanders64%——
Historical evidence shows the market already prices what this model knows, so the call is priced on the market; the model is shown for context.
Closest priceColts -3.5 · Spread
Other booksDraftKings-110Caesars-112BetRivers-114Fanatics-115
Best price seen 3 min ago. Prices move; the thresholds above tell you when it stops being a play.
YGG projectionygg_nfl_model_v1
Colts22
—Commanders26
Commanders lineYGG -3.8market +3.5
Total ptsYGG 47.9market 48.5
Quarterbacks
ColtsD.JonesProbable
CommandersM.MariotaProbable
YGG's read
- The price already reflects it
FanDuel's -105 implies 51%; YGG makes it 51%. Not enough left to bet.
What could go wrong
- Offensive efficiency-1.4 pts
Offensive efficiency per play favours Commanders.
- Quarterback edge-1.2 pts
The quarterback matchup tilts toward Commanders.
- Home QB questionable (Jayden Daniels)
This is unresolved and can move the number before the start.
Home QB questionable (Jayden Daniels)Model weight reduced for unconfirmed inputs (qb_questionable×0.5)
Model convictionNone
Price qualityNot playable
Data qualityPartial
How this call was made
- Recommendation engine
- tip_engine_v2 · config aa9085aea94f5c2d
- Sport model
- ygg_nfl_model_v1 (beta_public) · not used in the price
- Market estimate
- consensus_devig_v1 · 5 books
- Version
- #36 · updated Oct 1, 8:24 PM ET · updates until the start
- ✓ not started pregame
- ✓ sport enabled sport configured
- ✓ market present 3 instrument(s)
- ✓ min books 6 verified books (need 3)
- ✓ price fresh fresh prices available
- ✓ dispersion market agrees on the number
- ✓ candidates 6 priced side(s)
- ✕ edge bet edge -0.63 pp / EV -1.22% vs 2.50 pp / 2%
- ✕ edge lean edge -0.63 pp vs 1.25 pp
- ✕ starter resolved Home QB questionable (Jayden Daniels)
Calls freeze at the start and are graded against the result and the closing price. See the record →