NFL · Sun 1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Scores, lines and injuries open once this game is on the ESPN feed. The YGG call below is current.
NO PLAYYGG passes
YGG passes
Patriots @ Bills
YGG's model favours Bills, and the market mostly agrees. At +275 there isn't enough left to bet.
YGG Model vs MarketBills -12.3 pts
YGGMarketDiff
Patriots39%27%+12.3
Bills61%73%-12.3
Historical evidence shows the market already prices what this model knows, so the call is priced on the market; the model is shown for context.
Closest pricePatriots ML · Moneyline
Other booksBetMGM+270Caesars+260BetRivers+250Fanatics+250DraftKings+245
Best price seen 3 min ago. Prices move; the thresholds above tell you when it stops being a play.
YGG projectionygg_nfl_model_v1
Patriots19
—Bills24
Bills lineYGG -5.0market -6.5
Total ptsYGG 42.4market 48.5
Quarterbacks
PatriotsD.MayeProbable
BillsJ.AllenProbable
YGG's read
- The price already reflects it
FanDuel's +275 implies 27%; YGG makes it 27%. Not enough left to bet.
What could go wrong
- Quarterback edge-4.2 pts
The quarterback matchup tilts toward Bills.
- Defensive efficiency-0.7 pts
Defensive efficiency per play favours Bills.
- Home QB questionable (Josh Allen)
This is unresolved and can move the number before the start.
Home QB questionable (Josh Allen)Model weight reduced for unconfirmed inputs (qb_questionable×0.5)
Model convictionNone
Price qualityNot playable
Data qualityPartial
How this call was made
- Recommendation engine
- tip_engine_v2 · config aa9085aea94f5c2d
- Sport model
- ygg_nfl_model_v1 (beta_public) · not used in the price
- Market estimate
- consensus_devig_v1 · 6 books
- Version
- #23 · updated Oct 1, 8:44 PM ET · updates until the start
- ✓ not started pregame
- ✓ sport enabled sport configured
- ✓ market present 4 instrument(s)
- ✓ min books 6 verified books (need 3)
- ✓ price fresh fresh prices available
- ✓ dispersion market agrees on the number
- ✓ candidates 8 priced side(s)
- ✕ edge bet edge 0.61 pp / EV 2.27% vs 2.50 pp / 2%
- ✕ edge lean edge 0.61 pp vs 1.25 pp
- ✕ starter resolved Home QB questionable (Josh Allen)
Calls freeze at the start and are graded against the result and the closing price. See the record →