NFL · Sun 1:00 PM ET
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears
Scores, lines and injuries open once this game is on the ESPN feed. The YGG call below is current.
NO PLAYYGG passes
YGG passes
Jets @ Bears
YGG's model favours Bears, and the market mostly agrees. At +150 there isn't enough left to bet.
YGG Model vs MarketBears +10.4 pts
YGGMarketDiff
Jets29%39%-10.4
Bears71%61%+10.4
Historical evidence shows the market already prices what this model knows, so the call is priced on the market; the model is shown for context.
Closest priceJets ML · Moneyline
Other booksCaesars+149FanDuel+148BetMGM+145DraftKings+145BetRivers+140
Best price seen 3 min ago. Prices move; the thresholds above tell you when it stops being a play.
YGG projectionygg_nfl_model_v1
Jets17
—Bears27
Bears lineYGG -9.8market -3.5
Total ptsYGG 43.4market 43
Quarterbacks
JetsG.SmithProbable
BearsC.KeenumProbable
YGG's read
- The price already reflects it
Fanatics's +150 implies 40%; YGG makes it 39%. Not enough left to bet.
What could go wrong
- Recent results-10.9 pts
Recent results are weaker for Jets than the underlying numbers suggest.
- Rest and schedule-2.3 pts
The schedule spot works against Jets.
- Home QB out (C.Keenum)
Treat the number with less certainty until this clears.
- Home QB doubtful (Caleb Williams)
This is unresolved and can move the number before the start.
Home QB out (C.Keenum)Home QB doubtful (Caleb Williams)Model weight reduced for unconfirmed inputs (qb_doubtful×0.5)
Model convictionNone
Price qualityNot playable
Data qualityThin
How this call was made
- Recommendation engine
- tip_engine_v2 · config aa9085aea94f5c2d
- Sport model
- ygg_nfl_model_v1 (beta_public) · not used in the price
- Market estimate
- consensus_devig_v1 · 6 books
- Version
- #34 · updated Oct 1, 8:44 PM ET · updates until the start
- ✓ not started pregame
- ✓ sport enabled sport configured
- ✓ market present 3 instrument(s)
- ✓ min books 6 verified books (need 3)
- ✓ price fresh fresh prices available
- ✓ dispersion market agrees on the number
- ✓ candidates 6 priced side(s)
- ✕ edge bet edge -0.92 pp / EV -2.31% vs 2.50 pp / 2%
- ✕ edge lean edge -0.92 pp vs 1.25 pp
- ✕ starter resolved Home QB doubtful (Caleb Williams)
Calls freeze at the start and are graded against the result and the closing price. See the record →