NHL · Sun 8:00 PM ET
Florida Panthers @ Anaheim Ducks
Scores, lines and injuries open once this game is on the ESPN feed. The YGG call below is current.
LEANYGG Lean
Under 6.5
Total · Panthers @ Ducks
+110DKDraftKings
YGG makes Under 6.5 50%. DraftKings at +110 only needs 48% to break even.
Model convictionNone
Price qualityFair
Data qualityPartial
YGG Model vs Market
YGGMarketDiff
Panthers38%——
Ducks62%——
Historical evidence shows the market already prices what this model knows, so the call is priced on the market; the model is shown for context.
The priceUnder 6.5 · Total
YGG fair price+10149.7% chance
Value+4.4%+2.1 pts over break-even
Lean down to+107worst price that still qualifies
Becomes a BET at+112or better
Other booksCaesars-104BetMGM-115
Best price seen 3 min ago. Prices move; the thresholds above tell you when it stops being a play.
YGG projectionygg_nhl_model_v1
Panthers2.9
—Ducks3.4
Ducks lineYGG -0.7no market line
Total goalsYGG 6.3market 6.5
Goalies
PanthersJacob MarkstromExpected
DucksLukas DostalExpected
Why YGG likes it
- The price is worth taking+4.4% value
DraftKings is offering +110; YGG's fair price is +101.
What could go wrong
- Thin model inputs
Part of the model's read rests on limited or prior-season data.
Home goalie expected, not confirmed (Lukas Dostal)Away goalie expected, not confirmed (Jacob Markstrom)Model weight reduced for unconfirmed inputs (goalie_unconfirmed×0.5)
How this call was made
- Recommendation engine
- tip_engine_v2 · config aa9085aea94f5c2d
- Sport model
- ygg_nhl_model_v1 (beta_public) · not used in the price
- Market estimate
- consensus_devig_v1 · 3 books
- Version
- #4 · updated Oct 1, 1:44 PM ET · updates until the start
- ✓ not started pregame
- ✓ sport enabled sport configured
- ✓ market present 2 instrument(s)
- ✓ min books 3 verified books (need 3)
- ✓ price fresh fresh prices available
- ✓ dispersion 1 instrument(s) too dispersed (> 6 pp)
- ✓ candidates 2 priced side(s)
- ✕ edge bet edge 2.08 pp / EV 4.36% vs 2.50 pp / 2%
- ✓ edge lean edge 2.08 pp vs 1.25 pp
- ✓ starter resolved no unresolved starter
Calls freeze at the start and are graded against the result and the closing price. See the record →